North European congestion is back — what berth waits do to your ETA

Berth waits at the big North European hubs are creeping up again, and the pattern is familiar: a vessel arrives on time, then sits at anchor for days before it can work. The bill lands twice — once in a later real arrival, and once in detention on the boxes waiting behind it.

The desk’s take: a published ETA won’t move while the ship is stuck at anchor — it was set before the queue formed. A predicted ETA, built from the delay you can actually observe at the port and on the vessel, will. If your visibility tool still shows on-time while AIS shows the ship holding off the berth, it isn’t telling you the truth.

What to do with it: watch dwell at the discharge port, not just the schedule, and let the demurrage clock start in your head the day the queue appears — not the day the invoice does.

This is exactly what TrackingMCP is built to surface — port congestion, a predicted ETA with the reason attached, and the free-time clock running against it.